카자흐스탄의 체제전환과 경제발전: 초기조건, 전략, 경제실적

초록

This paper mainly aims to analyse, based on theoretical framework of transition, Kazakhstan's initial conditions and transition strategy and to assess its influences on the economic performance. How can we estimate and characterize Kazakhstan's initial conditions inherited from the past and the meaning of its transition strategy, and their impact upon economic performance of the country. What is main causes of the Kazakhstan's rapid economic growth in 2000s, would its affluent resources including oil be a blessing for a curse for the future of the country. Kazakhstan has better initial conditions than the other countries of Central Asia, although worse than that of Central-Eastern European countries and baltic states. The transition strategy, however, concentrating on price liberalization and privatization of state owned enterprises, was narrow in its focus and addressed the wrong issues. In the early twenty-first century the economic situation began to appear more promising, as new oil discoveries, alternative pipeline routes and soaring oil prices fuelled the oil boom. The oil revenues would have been beyond anybody's mind of a decade earlier, but it can be said to be early to judge whether will they be used to promote long-term economic development and growth with equity or will they enrich a self-perpetuating elite who can prevent any political or institutional reform. The major concerns for Kazakhstan’s future are dependency on oil and main commodities prices, the lack of a proper institutional framework, deficiency of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), a shortage of investment in the social sector and endemic corruption. Another problem is based on the fact that the institutional framework has to catch up with the outcome of the rapid economic development and this can be only done with the direct involvement of the state in the institution-building process.

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