시스템적 금융위기의 결정요인에 대한 실증분석 - 신용붐, 국가채무, 주택시장 버블을 중심으로

초록

This paper investigates the effect of credit booms on systemic banking criseswhich is defined as the coincidence of the financial distress and the spilloveron the real economy. Using a panel data of 45 countries over 1973-2010 onsystemic banking crises data from Laeven and Valencia (2012) and privatecredit loan data from IMF IFS, we find that credit booms precede crises andwork as a cause. In the analysis, we add real house price fluctuation. UnlikeGourinchas and Obstfeld (2012)’s result, we find a new evidence that creditbooms significantly affect the systemic banking crises in both advanced andemerging economies after financial liberalization. We also find housing pricesbegin to drop before crises in advanced economies while begin to drop priceonly after crises in emerging markets.

키워드