복지패러다임 전환의 경제적 효과 - 보편적 복지 vs. 선택적 복지 -

초록

We study the economic effects of the paradigm change in social welfare policy from the targeted social welfare to the universal social welfare. The simulation results using a general equilibrium model, taking explicit account of various aspects of adopting the universal welfare, such as increase in the risk-pooling, increase in tax burden, reduction of the moral hazard due to the high explicit tax rate imposed by the current policies, shows that: (1) the social welfare is not improved by the paradigm change to the universal welfare; (2) the welfare cost of the paradigm shift is not high if the welfare expenditure is not large, but the increase in the expenditure level to that discussed recently will substantially deteriorate the social welfare; and (3) the change in the social welfare depends more on the change in the average of the disposable income, consumption, and leisure consumption, than on the change in the degree of their fluctuation.

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