국민연금이 취업과 은퇴에 미치는 영향

초록

We estimate the effect of National Old-Age Pension eligibility and amount on employment and retirement of older workers using data from the first six waves of Korean Retirement and Income Study. Under the assumption that the probability of employment or retirement changes continuously with age, the effect of National Pension is identified if a discontinuous change in the probability occurs at a beneficiary’s age of eligibility. We find that an individual becomes less likely to be employed and more likely to be retired if he or she reaches the age of eligibility for early Old-Age Pension benefit. Controlling for age, the probability of employment decreases by up to 10%p for men and by up to 20%p for women at the age of eligibility. Furthermore, we find that increasing pension amount decreases the probability of employment and increases the probability of retirement for men receiving the pension. A change in the pension amount, on the other hand, is not found to have any significant effect on employment or retirement of women. All in all our study results suggest consistently and strongly that National Pension reduces the probability of employment, increases the probability of retirement, and encourages earlier retirement among older men.

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