시계열을 이용한 실적단가 예측방안에 관한 연구

초록

The Korea Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of Cost estimate of public construction projects is failed to reflect the fluctuation of current construction cost. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004 and to reduce the use of Korean Standard of Estimate. This paper presents a series of process and the methodology for computing Actual Cost and analyzing the fluctuation patterns based on not only previous contract prices which made a successful bid but also all of the other bid prices. Also, this paper mainly handles a device for extracting strategic bid price such as low price bid for assuring reliable data and for predicting the construction cost which is built by Wavelet Analysis of Time series Analysis data and Neural Network. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

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