중동지역생산국 행위시각에서 본 국제석유가격변동 연구: “시장극대화” vs. “재정극대화”

초록

This paper will attempt to analyze the causes behind the cyclical structure of international oil price volatility where normal oil prices suddenly crash and later rise back to a high level again, from the point of view of the choices and actions made by producing countries. Oil-producing countries are exceptional countries, ones where political and economic activity is centered around exporting of oil and division of oil dollars. National revenue of oil-producing countries largely depends on the single product of oil production and exportation, and with a complete lack of internal capital they are countries that cannot but depend on foreign capital for oil development. Existing theories on the development of producing countries mainly draw negative conclusions on the long-term development possibilities for these countries, but say that this is from an unequal structure in the trade relationship between producing countries and consuming countries mainly based on divergent opinions such as terms of trade. This paper intends to reconsider the issue of low development in producing countries through taking a look at why oil trading between producing and consuming countries so easily leads from a normal relationship to an abnormal one with rapid rises and falls in oil prices, as well as what sort of effect this abnormal relationship has especially on the development of producing countries.

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