유배우 출산율 변화, 2005~2020: 혼인지속 기간 접근

초록

This study examines the trends in marital fertility in South Korea between 2005 and 2020. The total fertility rate (TFR) is computed as a sum of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs). The age-based TFR has the disadvantage that it controls for age distribution only. Any change in population composition, such as the proportion of the married women, may lead to change in TFR even when ASFRs remain constant. In practice, (age-based) total marital fertility rate (TFMR) tends to show unreasonably high levels of fertility. We utilize a duration-based approach that covers such a disadvantage in the TFR and estimate both TFMR and duration-based total marital fertility rate (TMFRd). Compared to TMFR, TMFRd displays more plausible and reasonable trends. The trends in TMFRd remain stable between 2005 and 2015 and then drop fast afterwards. Different from the trend observed until the early 2010s, the result demonstrates that the further decline in fertility since the mid-2010s is attributed to the decline in marital fertility in South Korea.

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