시군통합의 효과에 대한 경험적 분석: 단절적 시계열모형(ARIMA)의 적용

초록

This study empirically tests the effects of city-county consolidation enacted through the central government initiative in 1995 before the substantive implementation of Korean local autonomy in 1997. The research question of this study is if the consolidated cities created in 1995 have experienced enhanced efficiency and economic growth as expected before the city-county consolidation. To answer the question, this study employs an interrupted time series analysis, with a panel data set covering the 1984-2006 period, 12 years before and after the base year of 1995 when city-county consolidation occurred. The conclusion of this study is as follows. Regarding the consolidation in the 1990s and recently ongoing debates on consolidation, a consolidation program that discourages the restructuring motives of local governments by providing considerable amounts of administrative and financial support from the central government for local governments willing to consolidate, does not lead to expected efficiency and competitiveness. Such consolidation programs induce the public perception that the central government is "doing something" significant for the nation and people, enabling it to claim political credit.

키워드