투자 지향적 임대인의 신규계약 비중과 군집행동이 수도권 아파트 전세가율에 미치는 영향

초록

Amid rising apartment prices and rents, corporations, non-corporates, and foreigners have become increasingly active in the rental market, raising the need to assess how their new lease shares influence the jeonse price ratio. And, government regulations targeting specific market participants may trigger herding behavior or substitution motivated by regulatory arbitrage among non-regulated agents, thereby increasing the jeonse price ratio’s volatility and deepening market instability. This study employs a panel regression model using monthly apartment jeonse price ratio data from January 2017 to December 2024, across municipalities in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, to analyze 1) how the new lease shares of corporations, non-corporates, and foreign property owners affect the jeonse price ratio and 2) whether the July 10 Housing Policy, which imposed tighter taxes on corporate property owners, triggered behavioral shifts among non-corporate and foreign owners. The findings indicate that corporate ownership increased the jeonse price ratio, whereas non-corporate ownership helped stabilize it. However, after the policy’s implementation, non-corporate and foreign owners also contributed to increases in the ratio, suggesting possible herding behavior. These findings suggest that effective housing policies should consider the behavioral patterns of diverse market participants, as well as their potential behavioral shifts in response to regulatory interventions.

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