주택 월세ㆍ전세ㆍ매매가격의 장단기 구조 해석 : 시도별 수요공급 변수를 고려하여

초록

This study aimed to examine the common structure among Rent, Chonsei, and Sale Price that could be extracted from regional housing markets. The main results of the ARDL model are as follows. First, a market rate strengthens the co-integration between Rent and Sale Price, and works primarily in the long run, not in the short term. The coefficient of the interest rate changes to a negative value in the identification of capitalization. Second, the expected growth rate strengthens the co-integration of Chonsei-Sale prices and Rent-Chonsei-Sale prices, and has a significant effect in the short term as well as in the long term. Third, by controlling the housing supply and demand variables, the coefficient that is consistent with the Rent to Chonsei theory can be obtained in the long-term relationship. These signs are common in the Seoul capital area and in the non-Seoul capital area. Fourth, the main difference between the Seoul capital area and the non-Seoul capital area is that the timing of the price effects can vary. The marginal effects of mortgage loans (+) and housing stocks (-) in the non-Seoul capital area is relatively stronger. Fifth, the rate of returning to the long-term equilibrium was faster in the Rent Price, while the adjustment speed of the rent price was relatively faster in the Seoul capital area.

키워드