자율주행 자동차 산업의 미래 시나리오 예측 연구

초록

In recent years, the autonomous vehicle industry has changed drastically. So the needs and interests in predicting future technologies and market prospects of the autonomous vehicle field have been very increased. However, considering the characteristics of the automotive industry, which has various factors, complex correlation of them and big influence on each other, the study of systematic future forecasting methodologies are urgent and necessary which are applicable to autonomous vehicle industry. In this research, the two methods such as “Field Anomaly Relaxation” and “Multiple Perspective Concept” were analyzed and chosen, which are suitable to automotive industry. By the combination of two methods this research developed and examined the three future scenarios related to core technologies and industry trends. And these scenarios feasibility was verified by experts and evaluation checklist. This research has a contribution that this future scenario forecasting approach can be applied to the industries which have various volatility like the autonomous vehicle industry.

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