2030 국가온실가스 감축목표(NDC)와 관련한 수송부문 탄소세 도입효과 연구

초록

This study examines whether carbon tax in the transport sector plays an important role as a means of achieving the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we apply the method of World Bank(2020) to the energy outlook data from the long-run energy demand outlook from the Korea Institute of Energy Economics. We find evidence that if carbon taxes are imposed on the transport sector (gasoline, diesel, butane) by 10,000 to 200,000 won/tCO2e, the total fuel demand and carbon emissions will decrease by 1.0 to 15.6% compared to BAU in 2030. In particular, it was analyzed that to achieve the emission reduction goal in the transport sector by 2030, carbon tax rates should be about 530,000 won/tCO2e under the standard outlook, and 100,000 won/tCO2e under the net zero outlook. These results suggest that using carbon taxes alone is difficult to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction goal in the transport sector, and instead, it is desirable to introduce carbon taxes as a supplementary policy means as a part of various mixed policies other than price burdens.

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