배당변화와 미래 수익성 예측

초록

Signaling theory argues that managers use dividend policy to signal the future prospects of firm’s operational performance. According to the theory, the future operational performance would be enhanced after the firm increases dividends. In this paper, we investigate the information content of dividend. Specifically we examine whether dividend policy changes have the predictive power to the future earnings, using the sample of firms which have been continuously listed on Korean Stock Exchange during the period of year 2003 to 2009. We also include stock repurchase in firm’s dividend policy. Dividend payout ratio, which is the commonly used variable for dividend policy, has a logical limitation in measuring the cross-sectional variations of firms’ dividend policy in Korea. Considering the regulations on dividend payment in Korean firms, we suggest that the appropriate proxy variable of dividend policy in Korea is the ratio of dividend to distributable income, not to net income. The ratio of dividend to distributable income appropriately reflects firm’s dividend changes relative to its earnings. Our empirical resutls show that the ratio of dividend to distributable income does not have any predictive power to the change of future ordinary income, or operating income. Instead, there exists a significant negative correlation between dividends and future earnings, which are contrary to signaling theory. The results still hold even if we include stock repurchase in firms’ payout. Our empirical results overall provide evidence against the concept of information content of dividend in Korea.

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