인구고령화, 공공이전, 이민정책의 경제성장 효과 - 일반균형모형을 이용한 접근 -

초록

We study the effects of the immigration on the economic growth, using a general equilibrium model. The simulations using the model, which reflects the Korean economy and public transfers, the population aging trend, and the international population mobility structure, show that the inflow of the foreigners will be highly likely to improve the economic growth, unless their productivity level is too low and the magnitude of the public transfers to them is very large due to their low income. The inflow of the foreigners will expand the domestic market, which will raise the return to R&D, increase the R&D investment, which will induce the productivity growth, and raise the GDP per capita in the future. Therefore, it is highly possible that the growth delay due to the population aging will be substantially mitigated by the increase in the inflow of the foreigners. However, it is also shown that if the productivity of the flowing-in foreigners is too low, e. g. lower than 50% of the average productivity of Koreans, the growth will be delayed, which implies that the current trend, that the flowing-in foreigner mainly consist of the unskilled workers, may deteriorate the economic growth.

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