경기침체의 국가간 파급경로- GDP, 국내신용, 주가에 대한 실증분석 -

초록

Using panel data from 62 developed and developing countries, this paper empirically examines how economic contractions spread across countries. In particular, we define contraction episodes in GDP, domestic credit, and stock prices and investigate synchronization of those events among economically related countries. Our findings are as follows. First, fluctuations in GDP, domestic credit, and stock prices tend to coincide among countries that are linked through international trade and finance. Second, the comovement is more evident in contractions than expansions. Third, perhaps because of the recent trend of globalization, the international transmission of contractions is more clearly observed in the post-1997 years. Fourth, while the trade linkage is most important in overall transmission of contractions, financial contractions in advanced economies appear to spread to developing economies mainly through financial linkages.

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