주거 점유 형태 전이 행렬을 통해 본 주거 사다리의 분절 현상 분석

초록

This study aimed to analyze structural shifts and mobility asymmetry in the South Korean housing ladder using a Markov chain model. The results indicated significant market restructuring (Frobenius norm: 0.5877) and a widening mobility gap; the upper tier's transition to ownership accelerated (mean first passage time [MFPT]: 1.96), whereas the lower tier faced severe bottlenecks (MFPT: 5.02). Sensitivity analysis revealed that the marginal impact of the standard stepping-stone pathway (the Jeonse system) surged ninefold (0.026 to 0.232), emerging as a critical hurdle, while addressing issues concerning the lowest tier remains a policy blind spot. Simulations project a decline in the Jeonse system of 7.3%, giving warning of a dichotomous ownership-versus-rent market. We propose a two-track policy: direct welfare provision for the lowest tier and targeted bridging financing for the middle tier to restore the broken housing ladder.

키워드