탈중국 글로벌 희토류 공급망 구축의 현실과 과제

초록

On April 4, 2025, China imposed export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), reviving concerns over a second global rare earth crisis. As HREE-basedpermanent magnets are increasingly viewed as strategically important—comparable to semiconductor chips—the global challenge centers on potential dysprosium shortages andthe midstream capabilities required to separate, process, and materialize dysprosiumfor magnet manufacturing. China is assessed as having a largely integrated domestic supplychain spanning HREE mining, separation and processing, metallurgical refining/smelting, magnet production, and recycling. This paper analyzes the key stages of the rare earthmagnet supply chain to evaluate whether the United States can build a less China-dependent supply chain and, if so, when such a transition could be realized. Basedon the current stage-by-stage status, full decoupling from Chinese rare earth magnets within the next few years appears unrealistic. Partial reliance is likely to persist through2030, while joint self-sufficiency among the United States and its allies is expected in the mid-2030s or later. Non-rare-earth permanent magnet technologies may serve as a potential game changer

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