한국 지방자치단체 출산장려정책의 효과 평가

초록

This study examines the effects of local governments‘ pro-natalist policies which, from the beginning, have been controversial about their effects and eligibility criteria. We develope regression models which relate the crude fertility rate to birth subsidies, health insurance for newborn children, and other determinants of the fertility rate. Using a data set of 230 municipalities from 2001 to 2010, we estimate the models by panel regression method. The results provide evidence that municipal birth subsidies have a positive effect on the fertility rate. Specifically, municipal birth subsidies for the first child and those for the second child raise the fertility rate and those for the first child have a greater effect than those for the second child. But, municipal birth subsidies for the third or the higher child are found to be ineffective. The results also show that provincial birth subsidies have a positive effect on the fertility rate and that provincial subsidies for the second child have a greater effect than those for the third child. However, it is found that municipal health insurance for newborn children does not have any statistically significant effect on the fertility rate. Among fertility rate determinants, marriage rate, the ratio of childbearing-aged women, and education level are found to be most important factors of the fertility rate.

키워드