전ㆍ월세 수요공급가설을 이용하여 전세수급심리가 임대차 계약에 미치는 영향 분석 -서울과 6대 광역시의 아파트를 중심으로-

초록

This study analyzed whether supply and demand conditions affect housing tenure choice based on the supply-demand hypothesis. In a situation where the Chonsei-to-monthly-rent conversion ratio is consistently higher than the market interest rate, it is reasonable for the landlord to choose monthly rent and the tenant to choose Chonsei. When interpreted as the Chonsei-Monthly rent choice differentiation hypothesis that tenure choice is affected by the owner’s borrowing constraints and the tenant’s asset condition, the optimal tenure choice of the owner and the tenant is the opposite. Analysis using the VAR model was conducted using 120 monthly time series data from 2011 to 2020 for Seoul and six metropolitan cities. As a result of analyzing the effect of the shortage of Chonsei supply on the housing tenure contract ratio, the hypothesis was adopted in some cities. The proportion of monthly rental contracts increased as rental demand increased. In a market where rental demand is higher than supply, it is found that landlord prefer monthly rental contracts rather than Chonsei. Through empirical analysis, it was confirmed that the housing tenure contract can be determined by supply and demand condition. But, the opposite results were shown in Ulsan city. This result suggests that the model of this study should be supplemented in consideration of the submarket characteristics in the future.

키워드