바이든 정부의 에너지 전환과 러시아의 대응 전략

초록

This paper identifies how Joseph Biden’s energy policy will affect Russia in the next four years after 2021. Russia relies on oil and natural gas exports for most of its national budget, overall export revenues and GDP, which would be economically challenged if Biden’s eco-friendly energy policy lowers oil price and reduces foreign investment in Russia’s energy sector. Russia is focusing on developing LNG gas fields rather than actively accepting the transition to renewable energy and carbon neutrality, regionally, expanding Asian markets such as China rather than Europe, and Russia’s energy giants are not actively responding to energy transformation. Moreover, Western sanctions have led Russia to increasingly rely on Chinese capital, which has accelerated cooperation between Russia and China and made the U.S. strategy difficult. The Biden administration is trying to lift some of the Russian sanctions to widen and neutralize Russia and China. To this end, the U.S. lifted sanctions on the stalled Nord stream-2 gas pipeline. If the U.S. makes concessions on sanctions against Russia, cooperation with South Korea in Northeast Asia is also expected. If Western sanctions against Russia are lifted to a certain extent, it will be possible to create a new mega-cooperation project between South Korea and Russia in Northeast Asia.

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