APC 모형에 기초한 장기주택수요 추정

초록

When we analyze housing demand, we simply assume that housing consumption pattern of a household follows a typical life cycle measured by age. However, same age groups at different time points belong to different birth-cohorts. Different birth-cohorts may have different preferences on housing consumption. Without considering this birth-cohort effect explicitly, estimating efforts of future housing demand may produce a misleading result. So, we develop an Age-Period-Cohort(APC) model to measure age, cohort and period effects separately on housing consumption of households. The estimated APC odel shows that the peak point of housing consumption appears at the age of 55~59, which is younger than the peak age groups in the existing studies without controlling cohort and time effect. Regarding to cohort effect, there exists a istinguished decrease in housing consumption levels of the younger generations including Baby Boomers(born in 1955-1964) comparing with those of the older generations. The forecasting result of long-term housing demand based on the APC model shows 38.7% of a cumulative growth between the years of 2010 and 2035, which is a significantly lower numbers comparing with the previous studies using modified Mankiw-Weil models incorporating age and time effects only.

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