Fraction of cancer incidence and mortality attributable to dietary factors in Korea from 2015 to 2030

초록

OBJECTIVES: Dietary factors play an important role in modifying cancer risk. This study aimed to assess the proportion of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea attributable to dietary factors from 2015 to 2030. METHODS: We estimated the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and mortality using dietary intake levels, exposure rates, and relative risks (RRs). Intake and exposure rates were derived from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, assuming a 15-year latency. RRs were obtained from meta-analyses of Korean cohort and case- control studies. RESULTS: In 2020, 6.08% of cancer cases and 5.70% of deaths in Korea were attributable to dietary factors. High salted vegetable intake (2.12% for incidence and 1.78% for deaths) and low intake of non-starchy vegetables and fruits (1.92 and 2.34%, respectively) were major contributors. However, high intakes of red meat and processed meat showed low PAFs, each less than 1%. The projected PAF for cancer attributable to high salted vegetable intake is expected to decrease substantially to 1.17% in 2030. In contrast, the PAF linked to low intake of non-starchy vegetables and fruits is projected to remain relatively stable. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that dietary factors make a substantial contribution to cancer incidence and mortality in Korea. This study highlights that reducing salted vegetable intake and encouraging a diet rich in non-starchy vegetables and fruits may support cancer prevention efforts. Continuous monitoring of dietary trends remains crucial for reducing the cancer burden.

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