경유지를 고려한 서울시 공공자전거 통행발생량 추정 모형 개발

초록

Bikes have recently emerged as an alternative to carbon neutrality. To understand the demand for public bikes, we endeavored to estimate travel frequency of public bike by considering the intermediate stops. Using the GPS trajectory data of ‘Ttareungyi’, a public bike service in Seoul, we identified a stay point and estimated travel frequency reflecting population, land use, and physical characteristics. Application of map matching and a stay point detection algorithm revealed that stay point appeared in about 12.1% of the total trips. Compared to a trip without stay point, the trip with stay point has a longer average travel distance and travel time and a higher occurrence rate during off-peak hours. According to visualization analysis, the stay points are mainly found in parks, leisure facilities, and business facilities. To consider the stay point, the unit of analysis was set as a hexagonal grid rather than the existing rental station base. Travel frequency considering the stay point were analyzed using the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model. Results of our analysis revealed that the travel frequency were higher in bike infrastructure where the safety of bike users was secured, such as ‘Bikepath’ and ‘Bike and pedestrian path’. Also, public bikes play a role as first & last mile means of access to public transportation. The measure of travel frequency was also observed to increase in life and employment centers. Considering the results of this analysis, securing safety facilities and space for users should be given priority when planning any additional expansion of bike infrastructure. Moreover, there is a necessity to establish a plan to supply bike infrastructure facilities linked to public transportation, especially the subway.

키워드