인구구조 변화와 장래 노동시장의 변화 전망

초록

The purpose of this paper is to prospect demographic changes and long-term labor market changes, and to find a policy against labor market demand-supply imbalance. To forecast a labor supply and demand by cohort, it sets a labor supply forecasting model and a labor demand forecasting model, and prospects the demand-supply gap of a labor market. It appears that the labor supply of major working class in 20’s, 30’s and 40’s will be insufficient(undersupply), on the other hand, the labor demand of aged working class in 50’s and 60’s+ will be insufficient(oversupply) in the future. For policy against a labor market demand-supply imbalance, this paper suggests the policy of foreign worker employment, labor mobility increasing, industrial development for aged working class and employment subsidy. In particular, according to forecasting that the 60’s+ cohort’s labor demand about 4 million will be insufficient compared with the 60’s+ cohort’s labor supply in 2030, it suggests that the revitalization of the aged labor is the most important policy against an aging society in the long term.

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