불확실성을 고려한 기후변화 예측: 1. GCM과 RCP 불확실성

초록

Three sources of uncertainties occurring in projection of climate change have been considered, and investigated numerically. Thisstudy accounts for the uncertainties caused by both imperfect multiple GCM(General Circulation Models) and unknown emissionamount while the companion study addresses the uncertainty of climate internal variability. First, the uncertainty of future externalforcings is simulated by using the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios provided from IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change), and the GCM uncertainty is quantified through a BWA(Bayesian Weighted Averaging) method. The threefuture periods, 2011-2040, 2041- 2070, 2071-2100, and two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are employed, and 1,000 samplesare obtained for the 3 periods and 2 scenarios, respectively. From the results of BWA for 18 GCM ensemble, temperature willcontinuously increase as time passes, but the precipitation does not show any significant trend. In general, the variability on the projectionof climate change tends to increase more substantially in the end of century than the early, so that considering variabilitythrough a BWA analysis in studies of climate change is necessary.

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