부동산 과소거래시장의 하위시장 가격지수 작성을 위한 계층 모형의 활용 방안

초록

The scale of investment in the real estate market in Korea continues to grow every year, and accordingly, the demand for market information for diagnosing market conditions and making investment decisions increases. Unlike the housing market, commercial real estate market has an exclusive information system that lacks information available to investors. In particular, it is not easy to estimate a stable index, even if various information is available for the office market, with a low frequency of transactions. Various attempts have been made to estimate the index in Korea, but there is a limit to showing more detailed sub-market information. Therefore, this study estimated the price index based on the transaction-based data of the office sub-market with a low transaction frequency. A model combining a hierarchical structure with a repeat-sales model was used, and various indicators such as statistical reliability, stability, index revision, and predictive performance of the model were compared. It was confirmed that the index estimation performance was improved, and it is expected that the performance will be better, especially in situations where transactions are less frequent. In addition, the possibility of expanding and utilizing the research model was suggested by estimating the subdivided regional indices instead of the district, by utilizing the advantage of flexible model modification.

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