Exit 기반 DCF와 내부수익률 수렴 분석을 통한 플랫폼 기업의 내재가치 검증: Exit-only IRR과 WACC Gap을 중심으로

초록

This study conducts an empirical analysis of platform companies—whose deterministic cash flows (FCF) are volatile and whose valuations rely heavily on Terminal Value (TV)—by applying an “IRR–WACC Consistency–Based Complementary Valuation Model” that addresses structural limitations of traditional discounted cash flow (DCF). The model decomposes the total expected return (WACC) into capital-gain –driven return (Exit-only IRR) and intrinsic cash-flow return from operating FCF, providing a quantitative framework to assess the sources and quality of value creation. Analyzing four major Korean platform firms (Coupang, Woowa Brothers, Kurly, and SK Planet), the study identifies a clear bifurcation in risk structure: “cash-generating types,” whose intrinsic FCF anchors present value, and “future-dependent types,” whose valuations rely on uncertain exit-based capital gains. The study reinterprets the IRR–WACC Gap not as a pricing error but as a measure of margin of safety based on actual cash-generation capacity, while the portion of value unexplained by deterministic cash flows is viewed as a growth premium requiring alignment through contractual design. This framework enhances TV-dependency diagnostics, validates consistency among growth and discount-rate assumptions, and supports return-centric investment decisions that complement conventional DCF methods.

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