공간적 하위시장의 주택가격 불확실성이 주택재정비사업의 소요기간에 미치는 영향 : 서울시 자치구를 중심으로

초록

This study examined the effect of uncertainties in housing sales prices on the duration period of a total of 598 housing regeneration projects from November 2003 to June 2022 in Seoul. The study applied proportional hazard models considering factors of housing price uncertainties across districts such as the clustered marginal model, shared frailty model, and random intercept model. The results confirmed that the uncertainty of apartment housing sales prices, rather than all housing types, significantly affects delaying the completion of housing regeneration projects. Specifically, the study demonstrated that one unit increase in the standard deviation of the apartment sales prices index delayed the project duration period by 15.45%. In Seoul, where there are few land resources available for development, redevelopment projects are the only means of supplying housing. Therefore, the government should continuously strive to control the uncertainty of the housing market by district, especially apartment housing prices, to ensure the timely supply of housing through housing regeneration projects.

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