몬테카를로시뮬레이션을 이용한 사업방식선택에 따른 주거지변화 연구: 서울시 재건축과 리모델링을 중심으로

초록

The purpose of this research is to anticipate the changes on the future residential area through different business methods for each system of reconstruction and remodeling. The research was conducted by utilizing Monte Carlo simulation. The result yields that there are relatively a number of differences for different time and area on the influences from remodeling and reconstruction system. As of now, there is a high rate of demands for reconstruction in Gangnam area, and in the long term, the extension remodeling has been demanded. In Gangbuk area, reconstruction has been demanded only if the contributed acceptance rate is greater than 30%. Otherwise, customized remodeling has been demanded. The business plan is highly impacted by the contributed acceptance rate of small houses. Price ceiling system only impacts in Gangnam area and has not much of influence considering the long term cases. The following can be drawn from the research results. First, differential application should be highly considered for the contributed acceptance rate of small houses. It is not necessary to continuously maintain price ceiling system as its effectiveness is rather minimal. Second, there should be improvements on the system and law of multi-home for the purpose of support expansion for small houses and rental houses in response to the changes on the demands for houses. Third, Sales unit price restraint must be abolished in order for construction business recovery and vitalization of housing market. Fourth, a more appropriate system is required for the density control by configuring limitations on bulk regulation depending on the increase in extension area for the purpose of fostering sustainable residential area. Fifth, there should be improvements on the system in regards to administrative support including benefits of subsidiary or financial support for customized remodeling

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