FMEA 도입 공동주택 공사비 상승 영향요인 분석 및 개산견적 신뢰도 향상 방법 제안

초록

Cost overruns in apartment housing construction projects continue to be a persistent issue that cannot be fully explained by macroeconomicchanges. External factors like rising material and labor costs, along with internal uncertainties during early-stage estimation, often lead to costincreases. Early estimates usually depend on limited design information and subjective judgment, lacking a structured approach to evaluaterisks. To address this gap, this study applies Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to identify, measure, and prioritize risks of costescalation based on three criteria: frequency of occurrence, difficulty of detection, and severity of impact. Thirty-three risk factors wereidentified from previous studies and 13 completed apartment housing projects. These factors were then reviewed and ranked by 90 industryexperts. Using the prioritized risks, mitigation strategies were developed and validated by 20 cost estimation professionals. The results showthat major risks can be reduced through structured early-stage interventions. Key risks include labor and material cost increases, omission ofescalation clauses, and estimation errors. The overall average Risk Priority Number (RPN) dropped by more than 60 percent, withimprovements reaching 78 percent for the most critical items. This evidence highlights that incorporating structured risk analysis into earlyestimates enhances risk identification and mitigation, leading to more stable and reliable cost estimates in apartment projects.

키워드