세대(탄생코호트)효과를 고려한 실용적 장기 주택수요추정

초록

Most models of aggregate housing demand assume that households follow demandestimated with a single cross-sectional observation. However, housing demand depends notonly on the current social and economic context characterized by stage of life course, orthe age, but also on the past socio-economic experiences and physical properties differentlyformed by generations, or the birth cohort. This study proposes a methodology to estimateaggregate housing demand that reflects inter-generational differences of housingconsumption. Using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) and Korean Censusdata, a methodology was developed to determine inter-generational differences of housingdemand on the basis of a modified Mankiw and Weil (M-W) model. In the model, birthcohort rather than age group of household members are used as exploratory variables. Theestimates are then applied to the process to estimate future housing demand. The resultsreveal that the post baby-boom generations including the baby boomer are reducing theirhousing consumption compared to previous generations, and that the aggregate housingdemand is smaller than what was estimated using the M-W model.

키워드