주택담보대출의 조기상환 결정요인 분석: 손익(수익) 공유형모기지와 내집마련디딤돌대출 중심으로

초록

This study analyzed the factors determining the early repayment of housing mortgage loans using the Cox proportional hazard model from October 2013 to December 2014 to December 2021, targeting individual loan data for Shared Equity/Appreciation Mortgage and Didimdol Loans contracted from October 2013 to December 2014. The research results are as follows. First, the interest rate difference (loan rate - market rate) strongly supported the previous study with a positive (+) effect on the early repayment risk probability. Second, the annual average housing price fluctuation rate and the loan rate had a negative (-) effect, which is the opposite of the previous study. This reflects the special nature of low-interest policy loans, and is interpreted as a high tendency to maintain loans when housing prices rise in the future, and an upward housing movement of first-time buyers (occupancy rate 76%) who benefited from lower interest rates. Third, the loan period and annual income had a positive (+) effect, the borrower's age had a negative (-) effect, women had a lower early repayment probability than men, and the metropolitan area had a higher early repayment probability than the non-metropolitan area.

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