구성자료분석법(CDA)을 이용한 콘텐츠산업 부분별 성장 분석 및 예측

초록

In this paper, we analyzed 11 sub-genres within the contents industry as well as the overall growth of the contents & culture industry using Compositional Data Analysis(CDA) for the first time in the economics and business field in Korea. Our findings are as follows. The contents & culture industry is expected to gradually trail off from the past rapid and volatile growth trend is has experienced. The decline in the domestic economic growth is expected to affect the growth of the content & culture industry. In this study, it is difficult to identify the link or relationship between sales and employment in the content & culture industryso a government policy that can lead to the expansion of employment along with the growth of the content industry is required. There is a close relationship between the use of mobile phones and the sales, employment and exports in the content & culture industry. For each genre forecast, it is expected that the sector of publishing will decline in sales, employment and export. It is worth noting the case of Amazon in the US. If policy support is needed for the publishing industry, it is desirable to encourage creativity and innovation in the field of publishing. This study has a methodological contribution. First, this study is the first attempt and study inthe application of CDA technique in the field of domestic economics and business. Secondly, to choose a desirable prediction model, we do not employ the information criterion, which is the theoretical statistical index for an out-of-sample forecast, but the method of simulating realistic forecasts, i.e. pseudo out-of-sample forecast technique.

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