남성복 시장과 혼인 추이의 관계 변화: 예식복 전환 가설에 대한 탐색적 분석

초록

Menswear, represented by the formal suit, has long served both as everyday workwear and as ceremonial attire. The spread of business casual dress and the establishment of remote work have substantially reduced the frequency of suit-wearing in daily contexts, while occasions that require formality (such as weddings and funerals) have persisted. This study conceptualizes this asymmetric contraction as an occasion-wear shift and explores how the relationship between menswear market size and marriage indicators changed before and after COVID-19. Combining menswear market statistics from the Korea Federation of Textile Industries with vital statistics from Statistics Korea, the study analyzes annual data from 2015 to 2025. The correlation between menswear market size and the number of marriages reversed from positive to negative around COVID-19. Even when marriages declined sharply, the menswear market remained larger than the level implied by extending the pre-pandemic trend, and menswear market size relative to marriages rose above its pre-pandemic level. These findings show a macro-level pattern consistent with the occasion-wear shift hypothesis. As the data do not directly measure purchases by wearing occasion, however, the results are interpreted as exploratory rather than as a verification of the shift. As marriages subsequently recovered, the gap between the two series narrowed, and the level at which the change stabilizes remains for future research. The results suggest that menswear brand strategy should shift its focus from frequency of wear toward situational fit.

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