이중차분법을 이용한 수도권 DTI 규제효과 분석

초록

We examine the effect of debt-to-income ratio(DTI) regulation on the price of apartments in Seoul metropolitan areas using difference-in-difference (DID), one of the methods for policy outcomes. We exploit that in Seoul the stricter DTI regulation of 50% has been enforced sometimes, while in Kyonggi province the DTI regulation has been kept at 60%. Unlike the existing literature, we use extensive data of actual transaction prices of apartments for analysis. The results reveal that the stricter DTI regulation does not have a significant effect on the apartment price in the short term, but it does in the longer term. We find that the effects of the stricter DTI regulation for 10%p decreased by 1.74% annually on the price. We also find that the effects of the stricter DTI regulation is significant only on prices of apartments no larger than 60 square meters. It suggests that buyers of small apartments are more likely to be bound by the DTI regulation than buyers of larger apartments due to income differences. The evidence indicates that while introduction of the DTI regulation has had effect on the prices of larger apartments, the 10%p difference in the regulation has not.

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