당파적 유권자가 믿을 수 있는 변화: 정책변화, 신호, 그리고 당파적 신념

초록

Although the premise that the public can understand the policy implications of institutional attributes is central to many existing studies that connect political institutions and political behavior, this crucial assumption has not been fully scrutinized. Using a survey experiment over a large number of U.S. adults, I provide empirical evidence, in contrast to the well-established finding of citizen ignorance, that citizens infer the policy implications from the given institutional context, using “institutional cues” and “elite cues.” In particular, I find that Americans can perceive the extent of policy change by relying on easily observable institutional characteristics such as divided government versus unified government in combination with elites’ opinions about expected policy change. Moreover, my findings show that this perception of policy change strengthens partisan beliefs. These findings contribute to the literature on partisanship and an increasing number of studies that focus on institutional context in the field of comparative political behavior.

키워드