지정학적 중간국 우즈베키스탄의 대외전략: ‘전략적 헤징’의 시각

초록

Whereas the evolutionary process of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy can also be explained by diplomatic diversification from a pragmatist perspective, open and involved multi-vectorism, the perspective of this article starts from the idea that the approach/strategy which have been realizing the line of ‘self-reliance’ of Uzbek foreign policy can be understood more clearly through the concept of ‘hedging’. The purpose of this study is to explain the causal relationships that triggered the hedging behavior of Tashkent in the critical moments of inter-state relations during the Karimov period, which spanned about a quarter century, in accordance with the empirical standard of ‘strategic hedging’. Next, the foreign policy of the Mirziyoyev period also maintains the basic principles of the traditional line of self-reliance and a new approach/strategy to the changing environment and challenges can be explained by the same concept of hedging. It will be demonstrated what differences are there between the approach of the Karimov’s self-reliance and that of the Mirziyoyev period. Considering the global and regional environment of the 2020s, the traditional line of self-reliance in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, and the perception and position of the leadership, strategic hedging as a way to practice the foreign policy line of the self-reliance is unlikely to lose its proven effectiveness for the foreseeable future.

키워드