중국과 러시아의 전략적 협력과 북한

초록

After the Cold War, China and Russia have tried to check the hegemony and unilateralism of America by strategic cooperation, which was strengthened during the Putin era advocating ‘strong Russia’. However,this cooperation now becomes more possible to be adjusted or reduced by the change of international order caused by China’s rapid growth,America’s comparative decline, and the resurgence of Putin regime. In particular, the burden of worsening relation with America, the limit of security cooperation, the severely-skewed population of the Northeastern area in China and the Far Eastern maritime province in Russia, the frictions created by illegal immigration and commercial supremacy of China are problems detrimental to the their strategic cooperation. Meanwhile, North Korea factor seems to intensify the limit of this cooperation. Unlike the helpless attitude of the past, Russia now shows its will to strengthen relationship with North Korea and actively intervene in the settlement of the problems pending in the Korean Peninsula along with China and Russia, for instance, North Korean nuclear issue. Hence, Russia would find itself in conflict with China in this stance. This aspect implies that China and Russia can gradually return to the old double structure-both cooperation and feud coexiststraying from thoroughly cooperative relationship. Firstly, Russia attempts to recover its political influence on Korean Peninsula and the East Asia, while North Korea wants to make good use of the conflicts between China and Russia and become less dependent on China. If these two wants coincide with each other, the development of relations of North Korea and Russia must be accelerated. Secondly,North Korea who did not receive enough help of China in military and security can ask Russia for help, and when Russia partially grants that request then the delicate conflict between China and Russia would be created. Especially, Putin should want to exercise higher political leverage in Korean Peninsula after his returning to power in 2012, then we cannot exclude the possibility of increasing small joint military exercises between North Korea and Russia, aid or sales of arms. Thirdly, the conflict among North Korea, China, and Russia over economic benefits could be generated. Particularly, China could amplify the dissatisfaction and feeling of alienation of far-eastern Russians in the process of promoting economic development embracing Northeastern Districts in China and ‘Wihwado’, ‘Hwanggeumpyong’, ‘Najin-Sonbong’ special economic zone in North Korea. The economic cooperation between North Korea and China is far superior to that between North Korea and Russia, of course. However, North Korea can substitute considerable portion of the former with the latter when the cooperation of North Korea and Russia in energy, natural resources, agriculture, and logistics hits its stride. Therefore the need for China-Russia strategic cooperation still exists, however, their positions on the level and way of the cooperation aimed at America might be different since their domestic and international circumstances have been dramatically changed in last 20 years. That is, as China’s becoming superpower is realized the triangle among China, Russia, and America is changed, and, moreover, Russia and America may need to cope with China’s aggressive, hegemonic diplomacy together in some cases.

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