남중국해에서 미 · 중 회색지대전략 경쟁에 대한 베트남과 필리핀의 대응

초록

The gray-zone strategy developed by the U.S. and China in the South China Sea is a kind of low-intensity strategy that uses regular and comprehensive operations while avoiding direct conflicts. China's gray-zone strategy has achieved great results for about 15 years since joining the WTO. Until the early days of Belt & Road, Salami tactics and fait accompli tactics had a significant effect, but China's offensive military and diplomatic policy is rather creating a paradox that destroys this strategic effect. If ASEAN's all membership in AIIB wins on the gray-zone strategy, the U.S. slogan of the "value alliance" is gaining considerable convincing power as China's soft power has plummeted recently. In the process, ASEAN countries are determined to use a hedging strategy that uses both a balance strategy and a free-riding strategy, but are forced to make difficult choices in front of carrots and sticks from the U.S. and China. As a result, ASEAN suffered a serious conflict of choice, weakened unity, and the "ASEAN centrality" is shaking in front of the centripetal power of the U.S. and China. However, Vietnam has political and economic conditions and capabilities to use a hedging strategy that distributes risks by utilizing balance and benefits at the same time, so it exercises a strong voice compared to its national power. However, it is still difficult for the Philippines to have a great effect on its economic benefits due to its low technology and income level. Geopolitical value rather fell into a paradox in which a powerful country was forced to choose, but Duterte is attempting a "reverse hedging" strategy to increase bargaining power with the U.S. using China. However, this strategy is likely to change at any time because it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to objective conditions.

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