유라시아의 민주주의: 통합적 설명모형의 모색과 색채혁명

초록

This study begins with raising following two questions. First, when an 'imperfect democracy,' a salient trait of Eurasian countries, has been stabilized into a non-democratic system in real politics, counting it as an incomplete or transitional democracy is not appropriate. Second, while the existing literature is broadly divided into 'transitology' based on agency approach and 'modernization hypothesis' from structural approach. This study argues that these two seemingly irreconcilable streams should be bridged by continuous efforts to develop a synthetic theoretical model, because each approach respectively has its own pros and cons. Especially this study pays an attention to that explanations on collective action of revolution can be harmonized with theoretical framework of democratization, since democratic transitions in Eurasia were proceeded by revolutions rather than through pacts among the elites in Eastern Europe. In this context, this paper purposes first, to diagnose and classify democratization in Eurasia by connecting the stage of democratic transition and features of political system, second, to develop a theoretical model, which can explain the process of color revolution, based on systematic reviews of the existing studies on democratization in Eurasia, and thirdly, to evaluate democratization and color revolution in Eurasia on the basis of the above theoretical model. While the attempt of this study to combine structural approach, agency approach, and 'Trend-Instrument-Trigger' model for color revolution would be very meaningful, it should be noticed that this model has a great flexibility and expandibility. Since structure variables and agency variables are very multifarious and the situation in Eurasia is also quite changeable, there is a need to develop more appropriate explanatory variables through further experimental studies.

키워드