가구특성을 고려한 장기주택수요 예측모형 - 보완된 Mankiw & Weil 모형을 적용하여 -

초록

Mankiw and Weil (1989) demonstrated how a change of age structure exerts impacts on housing demand. Although M-W model has produced strong debates and criticisms, it has a high potential for improvement to analyze detailed characteristics of housing demand. One way for improvement is to incorporate various household characteristics in their demand estimation model. We develop a modified M-W model to incorporate various household factors like household type, income, and housing cost in the framework of M-W model. Korean housing market is experiencing drastic demographic changes including slowing population growth, increasing portion of aged households, reducing household size and a rapid growth in the number of one-man household. Using the modified model, we estimate long-term housing demand in Korean housing market.

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