2005년 이후 중국의 글로벌 희토류 공급망 장악과 미국의 대응

초록

This paper analyzes changes in global trade of rare earth elements after China’s export restrictions in 2010. Previous studies highlight China’s weaponization of rare earths against Western countries. This paper breaks new ground by examining China’s hidden goals of reallocating critical rare earth elements such as Neodimium and Dysprosium for domestic consumption in the expanding industrial applications of permanent magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles. There emerges a gap problem between demand and supply for Dysprosium in the amount of 4,000-5000 tons at minimum and 20,000-30,000 tons at maximum for 2050 without doubling of China’s production and exports and significant new supplies from Rest of World. Our general knowledge suggests that some improvement has been made in supply chain resilience for rare earth elements after the 2010 China’s export restrictions. For instance, in 2019 global production of rare earth elements reached 190,000 tons, out of which Rest of World produced 70,000 tons. Most of 70,000 tons produced outside China is composed of Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE), which is globally oversupplied and easily extracted. Rising industrial applications in the permanent magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles requires Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) such as Dysprosium which is mostly found and extracted in Southern China.

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