가임기 여성의 순이동, 여성 고용, 주택가격과 출산의 동태적 상호작용 분석 : 수도권과 비수도권 비교를 중심으로

초록

Understanding the drivers of fertility decline has become a central policy concern in South Korea, where the total fertility rate fell to 0.72 in 2023, the lowest in the world, marking the country’s transition into an era of ultra-low fertility. This phenomenon reflects not only demographic change but also distinctive socio-spatial dynamics within the national population structure. In recent years, women of childbearing age have increasingly concentrated in the Capital Region, while many Non-Capital regions have experienced a shrinking fertility base due to persistent female out-migration. Although many studies have examined the individual effects of migration, employment, and housing affordability on fertility, relatively few empirical studies have investigated how these factors jointly interact to shape fertility outcomes across regions amid growing spatial polarization. This study examines the dynamic relationship between fertility, female net migration, female employment, and housing prices in South Korea, with a particular focus on differences between the Capital Region and the Non-Capital Region. Using monthly data from 2012 to 2023, we employ an auto-regressive distributed lag model with an error correction term (ARDL-ECM) to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics on the relationship. The analysis results reveal substantial differences of these two regions. In the Capital Region, female net inflows and higher female employment are associated with lower fertility in the long run, and rising housing prices further amplify this negative relationship. In contrast, in the Non-Capital Region, female in-migration significantly increases fertility, while female employment shifts from a short-term deterrent to a long-term positive factor. Moreover, when employment growth coincides with rising housing prices, a housing asset effect emerges that encourages long-run fertility. These findings suggest that fertility outcomes are shaped by complex interactions among migration, employment, and housing market conditions, with markedly different effects across regions. Policy responses should therefore reflect these regionally differentiated effects between the two regions. In the Capital Region, policies aimed at easing housing burdens and mitigating excessive population concentration are critical. In the Non-Capital Region, strategies that attract and retain young women while expanding stable employment opportunities and housing accessibility are essential for supporting fertility recovery.

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