가능최대범람확률에 근거한 지진해일 위험지역 예측

초록

The mitigation against tsunami hazard is increasingly significant due to huge casualty of human beings and property damage. However, available researches on tsunami mitigation are mainly focused on prediction of run-up height through numerical simulations with some numerical models. In this study, a hazard area due to unexpected tsunami attacking is predicted by employing a probabilistic concept. To predict a hazard area, a probability distribution type of flooding data is first determined, and the probability of flood exceeding a criterion height is then estimated by the cumulative distribution function. The probability of flood exceeding a prescribed criterion height is calculated for 83 cases. Finally, the tsunami hazard area is predicted by employing the probable maximum flooding probability.

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