한국 지방자치단체 출산장려정책의 수평적･수직적 확산

초록

This study examines the horizontal and vertical diffusion of the local birth subsidy policy in Korea. We develop a birth subsidy adoption model and a birth subsidy amount model. To overcome the selection bias, we estimate the former by the event history analysis and the latter by OLS through Heckman’s sample selection model. The results show that the policy is diffused horizontally at local and provincial levels in the policy adoption stage, but it is diffused horizontally only at the local level in the amount setting stage. The results also provide evidence for the vertical diffusion of the policy, showing that both the policy adoption and the subsidy amount of provincial governments have positive effects on those of municipal governments, respectively. Among internal determinants, municipal fiscal capacity and local economic conditions are found to be most important both in adopting the policy and in setting the subsidy amount.

키워드